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The New Hampshire democratic primaries went off this Tuesday without any of the technical hiccups that Iowa faced last week. With a heavily contested democratic ticket, the question becomes whether or not the New Hampshire primary results will have any influence on first-time voters in future primaries.

Generation Z, is the youngest and largest generation in the U.S. and will account for one-in-ten eligible voters for in 2020 according to the Pew Research Center. Many of them will be first time voters in 2020, up from 4% in 2016. For their numbers and Democratic leanings, Democratic candidates will be looking for their votes in this primary season.

Emerson College’s Polling Society has been tracking candidates’ general electability throughout the primaries. Vice President of the Emerson Polling Society, Kelsey Reardon, mentioned Vice President Biden’s decline in their polls questioning who people think will secure the nomination in July. “You can see that Biden’s performance in both the caucus and the primary really lowered voter expectations of if they think he’s going to be the nominee or not,” Reardon said. “He’s getting close to the lower double-digits, the lower tens. I think that that perception of him as a front runner and a safe pick and really his electability perception has really gone down.” President of Emerson Polling Society, Camille Mumford, projected that for the upcoming primaries in South Carolina and Nevada, the outcome from the New Hampshire primaries will sway the results. 

Despite expert opinion, when speaking with five first time voters at Emerson College, those students did not express that their primary vote has been swayed by the results of the New Hampshire primary. Thomas Massonet stated that he has always been a Bernie Sanders supporter, and plans to continue to support and vote for him in the primary. This seemed to be the theme with fellow Sanders supporters. Those who were influenced by the New Hampshire results were only more confident in their initial candidate following the primary. Sienna DiMuro, who backs Elizabeth Warren, said, “After seeing the results of the primary election in New Hampshire I believe that I am set on my vote. It showed me that blue is going strong, and we will all work together to create a safer and much healthier environment. I am more encouraged to go out and vote in this election!“ In addition, the New Hampshire primary results in the past few presidential elections do not reflect in the Super Tuesday primaries. In 2008, Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, but Obama came out as the frontrunner on Super Tuesday. This pattern occurred again in 2016, with primary voters switching from Sanders to Clinton by Super Tuesday. 

With only two states completed in their Democratic primaries, many delegates are still up for grabs, and it’s hard to tell this early on how voters’ opinions will change. For this reason, New Hampshire’s winning and losing candidates will all be looking towards first time voters to back them in future races. Registration for first time voters is a first step in encouraging turnout for primaries. Here in Massachusetts, the deadline for primary voting is February 12th, and for the general election the deadline is October 14th. Check the deadline in your state for voting registration, and spread the word!

Tweet: The New Hampshire Primary results are in, but will they be influencing first-time voters in primaries to come? With registration deadlines approaching, it’s important for first-time voters to get out there and vote for their top candidate! #NewHampshirePrimaries #2020Elections

Source List: 

Camille Mumford- camille_mumford@emerson.edu, President of Emerson Polling Society

Kelsey Reardon-  kelsey_reardon@emerson.edu, VP of Emerson Polling Society

Group Roles:

All members brainstormed for the specific angle, strong outline for the blog post, and potential sources.

Madeline Chun- Interviewed Emerson students and wrote the third paragraph

Elena Naze- Interviewed members of Emerson Polling Society and wrote the second paragraph

Nena Hall-Took the photograph, wrote the cutline, and created the headline

Anna Brosnihan- Wrote the Tweet and introduction and edited the blog post

Bailey Hardiman-Provided background information and wrote the fourth paragraph

This is a student blog for Jr 103 Group AMBEN

The students in this group are Bailey Hardiman, Nena Hall, Elena Naze, Madeline Chun, and Anna Brosnihan.